Avian influenza: FluWarning anticipates species jumps
FluWarning is a new digital system developed by researchers at Politecnico di Milano and the University of Milan to monitor changes in influenza viruses that could signal transmission from one animal species to another, a phenomenon known as spillover.
The system analyzes the viral genetic code to identify even small but significant variations. Using a statistical method, it learns which viral sequences are typical and generates alerts when it detects notable deviations. Each alert is reviewed by virologists, who confirm or rule out the possibility of a species jump.
The software was validated on data from the 2009 H1N1 swine flu pandemic and subsequently applied to H5N1 avian influenza. During 2024–2025, it successfully detected clusters of H5N1 in the United States, with a significant focus on California, where a state of emergency was declared due to the risk of livestock contamination.
This study, published in Science Advances, forms part of the SENSIBLE project funded by PRIN PNRR 2022 and coordinated by Anna Bernasconi. Politecnico research team comprises Bernasconi, Professor Stefano Ceri, and researcher Tommaso Alfonsi, in collaboration with Matteo Chiara from the University of Milan.
Thanks to its straightforward installation process and the ability to perform targeted analyses across specific locations and time periods, the FluWarning software holds substantial promise for widespread adoption by laboratories and genomic surveillance institutions at the regional level. This capability facilitates significant discoveries at both micro and macro scales. The system is fully operational and capable of delivering timely, day-to-day feedback on epidemiological changes.
Anna Bernasconi, researcher of the Department of Information, Electronics, and Bioengineering